I cannot emphasize enough the importance of keeping diaries. I started 25 years ago and it is no coincidence that was when I started having consistency and success. My advisory commentary twice each day is based upon my observations from my diaries. The old saying if you do not study history, you are doomed to repeat it. The last 3 months, from Thanksgiving to this point in time, has shown clear market intervention by someone. That someone has a name, I think it starts with a 'B' and ends with an 'e' but will remain nameless.
Utilizing diaries has clarified my observance into distinct repeating patterns that I will share with you.
First, S&P futures lows occur between 5:30 to 7:00 A.M. EST with regularity. Buying long or covering a short during this time frame has been effective more than 75% of the time. Many times it provides an ultimate low for the day.
Second, the market has ebbing and flowing up until 8:30 A.M. EST over 75% of time. This means that manipulators are staying on sidelines before the typical 8:30 A.M. EST news items are released. Therefore, scalping between 7:00 A.M. EST after the lows are in, and 8:30 A.M. EST before the news is released, is a normal environment that is untainted by machines.
Third, there is a tendency of a ten point move from the early morning 5:30 - 7:00 A.M. EST lows until approximately noon. Be mindful of this and do the math of adding 10 points to the lows to project a high. Being aware of this fact will keep you from shorting too quickly or exiting a long prematurely.
Fourth, observe the tick from 10:00 to 11:30 A.M. EST. This period can be very revealing as to the magnitude of buying by the computers. Ordinarily, we see an upward bias in this 90 minute window. If the first few minutes after 10:00 A.M. shows a consistency of all plus tick, do not short but go long to catch the 'wave' like surfing.
Finally, being aware of the repetition of patterns particularly as recorded on a backdrop of time increments. This will give you an edge that will increase your profitability.
There are numerous more sublime nuances that I would be happy to share as they occur via instruction. Knowing what occurrence to be watching to unfold and the time backdrop to be monitoring is essential. This awareness can be the difference between a very profitable day or a frustrating losing day.
I have a credo," there is always a way to make money". A trader's job is to find it!