September 26 - September 30

Each successive higher high Monday has been made with a minimal of effort. This market has yet to accelerate, which means that more energy will need to be presented. If this energy is presented, we could see short covering appear very rapidly and with heavier volume. Isn’t it interesting that we are seeing a pullback in bond prices following the euphoria surrounding the Fed’s announcement of buying long term US Treasuries? Once again the old adage of sell the news has been very accurate. If the bonds close below 141 they will have moved below the prices that were in affect just before the FOMC announcement of Operation Twist just last week. We are starting to see some sanity, which is difficult to experience when the powers to be are insane. I remember years ago on our farm how difficult for a bull that was lying down to rise to its feet. The gargantuan mass of a ton and a half bull to labor to its feet took time. However once it arose and stood, the power was majestic. That comes to mind with Tuesday's action. The bonds have now corrected more than 6 points from their highs of last week. The Fed once again gave investors a bum steer. There was too much euphoria without a foundation as we hit 147 last week. The sell stops still have not been triggered. Immediately following 1:00 pm est. on Wednesday we had numerous instances of minus tick that capitulated from 1:30 to 1:40 pm EST. This drove prices successively lower and then 2:00 pm est. once again reignited the bears with several excessive ticks encompassing approximately 10 minutes. This type of activity takes a short term market oversold very quickly. This market seems to be demonstrating resiliency but the end of the quarter can always provide tricky movements. The bonds had a further decline that carried prices to a pullback of more than 7 points from last week’s highs of 147. We are finally seeing some signs of common sense even with Bernanke and the Fed trying to ignite euphoria without substance. The European situation now has reached a zenith. It reminds me of the night that the shots were fired in the Persian Gulf. Once the shots and the war started the fear and anticipation actually abated. I suspect this will be the case this time once some type of definitive action is seen instead of rhetoric that has little foundation. September once again is finishing in the minus column as Septembers are notoriously famous. This has culminated a quarter whereby the fears of economies throughout the entire world have become foremost. We are into a period whereby rational thought has not been present. Always there will be a time where sound minds with common sense will make the most money. We need to see a rally that has legs and will cure one of the most oversold CCT readings I have experienced in years. We should see a very exciting period the beginning of October, as this market will have to react to this oversold condition.