October 3 - October 7

I implore all of you to be ready to place all the money back into the market once we have another intermediate buy. We are so incredibly oversold that once a turn is registered 200 S&P points should be quick and effortless. I have seen some incredible situations over my trading career but this ranks as one of the top five as far as being oversold and the length of time being oversold. Bernanke’s testimony on Tuesday did little to instill any confidence in the US market. Have the bonds run out of gas? Tuesday morning we registered just shy of 146 ½, which is a lower high while the S&P registered a lower low--a sign of a divergence developing. Tuesday provided a V bottom environment and today added to the plus side. Moreover, we did not see much minus tick, as the majority of the day was in the plus column. Therefore this market is showing that it has started to turn the corner. The incredible short term overbought on my daily CCT has now generated more than 60 S&P points since the lows at just below 1070. The bonds had a heavy day as they declined Wednesday. We need to see further declines with a succession of lower low days to indicate that the bubble is deflating. The rally earlier in the week made a lower high and now we need to see a reversal below 139 with a close there. The sentiment for investors is very negative. The fears have turned to a conviction that the bearish tone throughout the world is also going to create a bear market in the United States. Technically, there are some important key areas that would turn the fears into possibly euphoria, as the shorts have to cover. There is an incredible amount of sideline money that won’t be drawn in until the S&P is way above 1230. We are into a situation whereby the technicals are giving a rampant buy signal, but the fundamentals are lagging. In the bonds, we are now trading below the level of last Friday before the rampant 3 point rally. We are into a failed rally top scenario. A full confirmation roll down would be if it closed below 139. It is interesting that these bonds now have a much heavier look.  Both Spain and Italy had a downgrade in their debt ratings on Friday. When this was announced it threw cold water on the rally. The S&P’s high at 1174 now becomes a thrust high as it was made on favorable economic news, therefore if we can exceed that number on a close it would be the first plateau in scaling the mountain. The bonds approached the prior lows at just below 140, but responded to fear when the Spain and Italy downgrades were reported. They are demonstrating heaviness, but have not yet broken the springs out of the trampoline. One of these days the trampoline will bust and here comes 139 and much lower.