November 21 - November 25

The market is exhibiting extreme anxiety. Any and all worst than expected developments create havoc in the tape very quickly. This has created a nervous stock market with fits of panic and no times of stability. We should see a constant of stability with fits of rallies to counter the mere image of what recent days have been as this market has been deluged with bad news. This is a market that technically becomes oversold. The oversold internal tick readings are not as dire in price deterioration as one would expect. This means that the severity of the tick should have driven prices down a greater percentage than it has done. I want to point out a very contrasted divergence. The bonds are rallying into the price area that they attained last week. Therefore they are generating a double top pattern while stocks have gone significantly lower. This is meaning that the panic created regarded the economies throughout the world is not having the same influx into bonds that it had even last week. Tuesday we saw the FOMC minutes as well as consumption and production news related releases. It only created momentary blips and no lasting impression. This is really bizarre. We had the 5-Yr. auction Tuesday, which went very well.  It is incredible that this situation is once again surfacing whereby total disregard is made of prices in all regard is made of fear and manipulation. These bonds are incredibly overbought. I want to see if there is some reckoning that will plague the bulls over the next several trading days. One of my components that I use for calculating the Cook Cumulative Tick (CCT) is duration.  This measures the length of time that minus tick or plus tick is consistently appearing.  Wednesday morning, we had 65 consecutive minutes of minus tick.  At no time during this 65 minutes was there a registered plus tick.  The balk of the rest of the day was in the minus tick column.  This has put my CCT at excessively oversold levels. Wednesday’s 7-Year Note auction went very well. It created a rally in the bonds.  Prices were pushed up more than 10 points from the last correction low.  The universal consensus throughout the world feels that the U.S. Treasuries are the safest haven.  Whenever too many people think the same thing about a particular investment it generally is the wrong conclusion. If following popular opinion were profitable the majority of the time then many people would be successful traders. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Please express your gratitude and count your blessings. Happy Thanksgiving!